July 22, 2025

The SCC Leave Project: Predictions for July 24, 2025

Here’s a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on July 24, 2025.

Each week, we’ll be providing a short blog post that summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.

Each week, we’ll group cases into four categories:

  • Cases to Watch – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn’t mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
  • Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won’t get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
  • Unlikely Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
  • Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.

If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.

 

THIS WEEK’S CASES

There are 16 leave application decision coming out on July 24, 2025. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 16 cases in which we’ll give a prediction.

You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.

 

Cases to Watch

Achter Land & Cattle Ltd v South West Terminal Ltd

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 66% chance of getting leave.

 

Possible Contenders

Aroma Franchise Company, Inc v Aroma Espresso Bar Canada Inc

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 12% chance of getting leave.

Regional Health Authority B, dba Horizon Health Network v Jayde Scott, on behalf of herself and other class members

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

Aux Sable Liquid Products LP (formerly known as Alliance Pipeline NGL, LP) v JL Energy Transportation Inc

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 7% chance of getting leave.

Michael Ball v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.

Marigec Management inc v Rimanesa Properties Inc

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.

 

Unlikely Contenders

Martin Bradette v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.

David Romlewski v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Gregory Rouse v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.

Gloriane Blais v Directeur des poursuites criminelles et pénales

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a 1% chance of getting leave.

 

Long-Shots

Nathalie Xian Yi Yan v College of Traditional Chinese Medicine Practitioners and Acupuncturists of Ontario

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Andrew Spasiw v Law Society of Ontario

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Andrew Spasiw v Quality Green Inc

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Trojan Roofing & Exteriors Inc v His Majesty the King

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Louise Leclerc v Martin Henderson

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.

Sylvie Cantin v Manon Beaudet

  • Our Model’s Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.